Something important is happening across the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa. Wars that appear local are drawing in actors from increasingly far away. Ports built for commerce acquire military uses. Gold mined in conflict zones travels through (…)
I am not a military expert, but I do not read the withdrawal of Tigrayan forces from towns as straightforward evidence that their military position has weakened. An army can leave towns, roads and airports without losing its ability to move, (…)
History in the Horn of Africa is rarely allowed to remain history. An ancient civilization becomes evidence of modern sovereignty. A medieval dynasty becomes proof of national continuity. Territory incorporated during one political era is later (…)
In an earlier essay, “To Understand the Houthis, Begin With Yemen”, I argued that describing the Houthis simply as Iranian proxies gets the history backward. The movement did not begin as an Iranian creation. It emerged from the politics, (…)
Something important has changed in Ethiopia. For years, Abiy Ahmed benefited from the fact that his opponents were divided. Tigrayan forces, Fano, the Oromo Liberation Army and armed movements elsewhere had different objectives and histories and, (…)
For a long time, it was still possible to describe the problem mainly as one of implementation. Displaced Tigrayans had not returned home. Territorial questions remained unresolved. Disarmament was contested. Relations between Mekelle and Addis (…)
The Sudanese state has been governed by patrimonial order where loyalty is rewarded with patronage. The weakness of central state institutions has enabled the paramilitary Janjaweed to carve out its own power base. An attempt to muscle in on (…)
Ethiopia’s internal conflicts are worsening at a time it needs unity for its tense relations with Egypt and Sudan resulting from the GERD infrastructure project. Donald Trump’s interjection into the controversy has only exacerbated the issue, (…)
In Ethiopia, tension is dangerously growing between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), that was evicted from the ruling coalition in 2018, and the president Ahmed Abiy, who shows clear signs of his will to be more than « transitional ». (…)
The world has come to know the Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed for winning the Nobel Peace Prize. But he is increasingly facing difficult issues at home. Ethiopia has been unraveling even before he assumed power and his actions or lack (…)